Live Analysis

Rich Duncan
Strategic Investment Plan

Date February 22, 2025 Time 7:18 PM PST Markets Crypto · Equities · Commodities Scope Multi-Sector Comparison
★ #1 Highest-Conviction Investment
NVIDIA — NVDA

After evaluating 20+ assets across 5 sectors on 10 key indicators, NVIDIA delivers the optimal blend of explosive growth, proven execution, institutional backing, and reasonable valuation relative to its earnings trajectory.

$190
Current Price
$256-310
12-Mo Target
+34-63%
Projected Upside
25x Fwd P/E
Valuation
65%
FY27 EPS Growth
#2
Constellation Energy (CEG)
AI-nuclear monopoly · 22.5% EPS growth · $280 → $350+
#3
Southern Copper (SCCO)
Lowest-cost copper producer · 20.6% LT EPS CAGR · $194
ALT
Solana (SOL)
High risk / high reward · RWA growth 400% YoY · ~$83
01

AI & Semiconductor Stocks

The AI infrastructure buildout is the most powerful secular trend in global markets. Hyperscaler capex commitments for 2026 exceed $700 billion (Amazon $200B, Alphabet $175-185B, Meta $115-135B). NVIDIA commands 81% of the AI chip market with $500B in visible demand over 5 quarters.

TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor
NYSE: TSM · ~$210
Score
8.5/10
+30%
2026 Rev Growth
$1.1T
Market Cap
22x
Fwd P/E
57%
HPC Revenue %
The only foundry capable of manufacturing NVIDIA's most advanced GPUs. Neutral AI play — wins regardless of which chip designer dominates. 57% of revenue from high-performance computing. Expanding globally (US, Japan, Europe) to mitigate geopolitical risk.
AI Chip Monopoly US Plant Expansion 1.13% Dividend
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
NASDAQ: AVGO · ~$225
Score
8.5/10
+44%
Rev Growth
$1.05T
Market Cap
32x
Fwd P/E
+35%
EPS Growth
Custom AI ASIC chips for hyperscalers complement NVIDIA's general-purpose GPUs. Both chip types are needed simultaneously. Strong infrastructure software business via VMware acquisition provides stable revenue floor.
Custom AI ASICs VMware Integration Hyperscaler Deals
02

Copper Mining Stocks

Copper hit $12,000/ton on the London Metal Exchange in late 2025 (+35.8% YoY, best since 2009). The U.S. Geological Survey added copper to its 2025 Critical Minerals list. Demand set to surge 50-70% by 2040-2050 driven by EVs (4x more copper than ICE vehicles), AI data centers, renewable energy, and grid upgrades. Declining ore grades and multi-year mine development timelines create structural supply deficits.

FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
NYSE: FCX · ~$51
Score
8.0/10
+15%
EPS Growth
$56B
Market Cap
22x
Fwd P/E
+800M lbs
Leach Tech by 2030
World-class Grasberg mine (one of Earth's richest copper-gold deposits). Mudslide halted Grasberg production until Q2 2026 but Morenci operating income doubled to $396M. Leaching technology could add 800M lbs annually by 2030. Copper-gold mix provides natural hedge.
Grasberg Restart Q2 2026 Leach Technology Gold Hedge
TECK
Teck Resources / Anglo Teck
NYSE: TECK · ~$48
Score
7.5/10
+73.5%
FY25 EPS Growth
$25B
Market Cap
37.8%
LT EPS CAGR
Top-5
Global Producer
Merger with Anglo American creates Anglo Teck — a top-5 global copper producer with 70%+ copper exposure and 10% production growth through 2027. Highest long-term EPS CAGR (37.8%) in the copper space. Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
03

Energy & Nuclear Power Stocks

Nuclear energy is the critical bottleneck and enabler of the AI revolution. US data center demand growing from 19 GW (2023) to 35 GW (2030). Trump issued four executive orders targeting 400 GW nuclear by 2050 (from 100 GW). Amazon, Meta, Microsoft securing multi-decade nuclear power agreements. Global data center infra spending: $7 trillion by 2030.

TLN
Talen Energy
NYSE: TLN · ~$285
Score
8.5/10
+100%
2026 EPS Growth
+67.4%
Rev Growth
$18B
Market Cap
12/13
Strong Buy Ratings
Amazon deal: 1,920 MW of nuclear power through 2042. Acquired natural gas plants expanding capacity 50%, boosting FCF/share 40%+ in 2026. Nearly tripled NVIDIA's stock gains over the past year (+145%). Most explosive growth profile in the energy sector.
GEV
GE Vernova
NYSE: GEV · ~$425
Score
8.5/10
+82%
FY26 EPS Growth
$120B
Market Cap
$135B
Backlog → $200B
2x
Dividend Doubled
The "picks and shovels" play on the entire energy transition. Gas turbine giant serving hyperscalers while they wait for nuclear. Backlog doubling from $135B to $200B by 2028. Doubled dividend for 2026, $10B share buyback. 82% EPS growth projected.
04

Quantum Computing Stocks

A $1 trillion addressable market by 2035, but pure-play valuations are at extreme bubble levels. IonQ trades at 141x sales, Rigetti at 856x, D-Wave at 315x. MIT research places large-scale commercialization "far off." Morningstar estimates 5-10 years for early applications, 20+ years for general use. Historical parallels to the 3D printing bust of 2013-2014 are concerning. Verdict: Avoid pure-plays. Use Alphabet (GOOGL) for safe quantum exposure.

Asset Price Mkt Cap TTM Revenue P/S Ratio Technology Bubble Risk Rating
IONQ ~$30 $18B $80M 141x Trapped Ion HIGH 6/10
RGTI ~$14 $8.5B $12.7M 856x Superconducting EXTREME 4/10
QBTS ~$12 $10B $24M 315x Annealing HIGH 5/10
GOOGL * ~$315 $2.3T $400B+ 7x Willow QPU LOW 8.5/10

* Alphabet recommended as the safest quantum computing exposure. Willow QPU achieved 13,000x faster processing than the world's fastest supercomputer while suppressing errors. Profitable foundation, $100B+ cash, and quantum is just upside on top of dominant search, cloud, and AI businesses.

05

Solana (SOL) — Deep Dive

Solana has experienced a dramatic pullback from its January 2025 ATH of $293.31 to ~$83 today (-72%), but its fundamental adoption story — particularly in RWA tokenization, DEX volume, and institutional partnerships — is stronger than ever. The question is whether the price has already priced in a bear cycle or if accumulation here represents a generational opportunity.

Current Market Position

$83.30
Current Price
-72%
From ATH ($293)
$47.2B
Market Cap (#7)
$873M
RWA TVL (ATH)
+400%
RWA Growth YoY
126K
RWA Holders (+18.4%)

▲ Bullish Factors

RWA Dominance: $873M TVL, 400% YoY growth. BlackRock BUIDL, Ondo Finance, JPMorgan commercial paper all on Solana.
Institutional Adoption: 6 spot SOL ETFs approved (Oct 2025), $765M inflows. Western Union stablecoin platform. Galaxy Digital tokenized stock.
Network Dominance: 400ms finality, sub-$0.001 costs, 100% uptime past 12 months, $35.9B peak daily DEX volume. Firedancer pushing 600K TPS.
Regulatory Tailwinds: GENIUS Act stablecoin framework. Projected CLARITY Act for crypto market structure in 2026. Forward Industries holds 6.9M SOL ($1B).

▼ Bearish Factors

Price Action: -72% from ATH. Bearish on weekly timeframe. 50-day MA above price and falling. Down 33% in last month alone.
Supply Overhang: $870M in SOL moved out of liquid staking. 620M+ total supply with no max cap. Continuous inflation pressure.
Macro Risk: Crypto market correlation to risk assets. Broader market weakness. Regulatory uncertainty beyond stablecoins.
Competition: Ethereum retains 65% RWA market share. L2 ecosystems maturing. Alternative L1s improving.
🔎 Solana Verdict: HOLD / ACCUMULATE ON WEAKNESS

Solana's fundamentals (RWA growth, DEX volume, institutional adoption, ETF inflows) are the strongest they've ever been, but the -72% price decline reflects broader crypto market weakness and supply pressures. The risk/reward improves significantly below $80. Analyst forecasts range from $96-$364 for 2026, with bull cases targeting $425-$1,000 if CLARITY Act passes and RWA tokenization accelerates. Recommendation: DCA accumulation at $70-85 range for long-term holders with high risk tolerance. Not the #1 pick due to volatility and lack of earnings fundamentals vs. equities.

06

Final Verdict & Recommendation

Across all 5 sectors evaluated, NVIDIA (NVDA) offers the highest probability of outperformance with the best risk-adjusted return profile. Here's the complete ranking and rationale.

Rank Asset Sector Price Growth Valuation Moat Risk Score Action
#1 NVDA AI / Semis $190 +65% 25x Fwd 10/10 Low 9.5 STRONG BUY
#2 CEG Nuclear Energy $280 +22.5% 29.6x Fwd 9/10 Low-Med 9.0 BUY
#3 SCCO Copper Mining $194 +16.4% 25x Fwd 9/10 Low-Med 8.5 BUY
#4 TSM AI / Semis $210 +30% 22x Fwd 9/10 Med 8.5 BUY
#5 TLN Nuclear Energy $285 +100% ~20x Fwd 7/10 Med 8.5 BUY
#6 GEV Energy Infra $425 +82% ~35x Fwd 8/10 Med 8.5 BUY
#7 GOOGL AI + Quantum $315 +18% 7x P/S 10/10 Low 8.5 BUY
#8 SOL Crypto / RWA $83 RWA +400% N/A 7/10 High 7.5 ACCUMULATE
#9 IONQ Quantum $30 Early Stage 141x P/S 5/10 V. High 6.0 AVOID
#10 RGTI Quantum $14 Early Stage 856x P/S 3/10 Extreme 4.0 AVOID

Why NVIDIA is #1

  • 81% AI chip market share with $500B visible demand pipeline
  • 65% EPS growth projected FY2027 on $700B+ hyperscaler capex
  • 25x forward P/E = PEG ratio < 0.5 (cheaper than the S&P 500 on growth-adjusted basis)
  • Blackwell shipping now, Rubin launching H2 2026 — perpetual upgrade cycle
  • 60 of 64 analysts rate Buy/Strong Buy; consensus target $256 (+34%)
  • Feb 25 earnings catalyst + $30B OpenAI investment + China export resumption
  • Expanding into autonomous vehicles, robotics, physical AI — $10T+ TAM long-term
  • Irreplaceable CUDA software ecosystem creates massive switching costs

Risk-Adjusted Return Comparison

NVDA Return: +34-63%
CEG Return: +20-35%
SCCO Return: +15-30%
GEV Return: +30-50%
TLN Return: +40-80%
SOL Return: +50-400%
IONQ Return: -60% to +200%

Risk bars represent volatility / downside probability. Lower = better risk-adjusted profile.

Suggested Portfolio Allocation

40%
NVDA
Core Position
20%
CEG
Nuclear / AI Energy
15%
SCCO
Copper / Materials
15%
GOOGL
AI + Quantum Hedge
10%
SOL
High-Risk / Crypto